XChange - The NBR Blog

Instant Info

Published by: Guest Blogger — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 17:02:28 -0500

Authored by Harry Lin, CEO of Lottay.com

In a world where Google, Wikipedia, and Twitter can tell you almost anything almost instantly, are we smarter or dumber than we've ever been?

Think about these examples:

- You're with a group of people and the question comes up, "When is daylight savings time?" Someone whips out their iPhone and Googles the answer. They can even tell you which countries follow daylight savings and which don't. This info takes about 60 seconds to find, and you could be anywhere, as long as there's Internet connectivity.

Becoming a Landlord: the Nitty-Gritty

Published by: Jeff Brown, Personal Finance Blogger — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 10:27:46 -0500

So, let's say you've ignored the red flag I waved the other day. You want to be a landlord despite the mountain of aggravation I went to so much trouble to describe.

Okay, let's get down to some of the nitty-gritty financial issues. But first a caveat: These matters are terribly complex, and I'll offer just a bird's-eye view that misses lots of exceptions and special circumstances. Taxes are a nightmare, and you should study IRS Publication 527.

Careers for the Next Decade: The Importance of Thinking Ahead

Published by: Jack Kahn, Director of Program Development — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 15:55:34 -0500

Career counselors are often quick to recommend fields where a personnel shortage currently exists. That seems logical...after all, shouldn't you train for positions where the jobs are?

Perhaps not. Take the teaching profession. For years, it was chronically understaffed--so thousands of students and mid-life career changers decided to train to become teachers. But just as they got their certification, the economy went into recession. With declining tax revenues, school districts began laying off teachers. Now there are now too many qualified teachers and not enough openings. The shortage of teachers has turned into a glut.

To help you avoid falling into that trap, we're profiling four up-and-coming careers in our Thanksgiving Day program. Our consultant, Dr. Marty Nemko, says each meets two criteria: 1) it should grow in demand in the coming years 2) it is still largely undiscovered. One is "Patient Advocate." Never heard of it? That's the idea. As Marty put it: "Everyone knows there's going to be a great need for physicians' assistants and nurse practitioners. But most people have never read about a patient advocate. It's under the radar--so the competition may be less rigorous." And a bonus is that becoming a patient advocate requires far less training than most other medical specialties.

Freefalling State Revenues Mean Higher Taxes, Tuition, Ahead

Published by: Terri Cullen, Economy and Markets Blogger — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 15:29:09 -0500

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is on its way to posting another triple-digit gain Monday, as more encouraging data on the housing market boost hopes that happy days are here again for the U.S. economy.

Tell that to state governments.

State tax revenues have been in a freefall over the last year -- the steepest drop in tax collections seen in more than 50 years. Overall state tax revenues dropped 10.7% in the third quarter, compared to the same period a year earlier, in the 44 states providing tax data to the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government at the State University of New York. (Find the complete report here.)

Cost Containment and the Senate Health Care Debate

Published by: Darren Gersh, Washington Bureau Chief — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:36:44 -0500

Let's face it, cutting costs is as much fun as dieting. Maybe less.

Which may explain why health care reform is such a daunting topic. The Senate bill that is facing a key procedural vote on Saturday is filled with complex policies to "bend the cost curve" on health care. There is a commission on costs, a tax on high-cost insurance plans, and a variety of new payment options for medicare.

The complexity implies more certainty than reality to the health care cuts. Congress is changing incentives and putting in place new structures that have a chance to save money, but are not proven to do so. It is hard to tell the voters that we have to try to cut costs, but don't really know how to do so.

The other issue, of course, is that the Senate bill expands coverage to millions of Americans. Budget hawks worry about combining guaranteed access with uncertain savings. Progressives fire back that it is unfair to squeeze out costs without first bringing everyone into the system.

These are the real issues. I wonder how much they will be debated this weekend?

Health Care: The Filibuster

Published by: Scott Gurvey, New York Bureau Chief — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 12:23:09 -0500

There's a great line in an early scene of the musical "1776". Richard Henry Lee of Virginia has introduced a resolution declaring the 13 colonies "free and independent states" and the Second Continental Congress is deciding if it should consider the proposal and open debate. A tied vote is broken by Stephen Hopkins of Rhode Island, who declares, "In all my years I never seen, heard, nor smelled an issue that was so dangerous it couldn't even be talked about. Hell yes. I'm for debating anything."

There were no transcripts of the proceedings of the Continental Congress. Playwrights Sherman Edwards and Peter Stone used writings by and about the founders for much of the dialog, but I've never been able to find anything to prove that Hopkins really said that, or anything resembling it. Still, even if we do not know what the founders said, we know what they did. They did debate and approve the resolution, even though their action put them individually at grave personal risk as it moved their constituants from insurrection to outright war.

Richard Branson and the "It" Factor

Published by: Jeff Yastine, Senior Correspondent — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 18:42:25 -0500

After meeting billionaire Richard Branson in the flesh for the first time on Thursday, a line of dialogue from the 1962 movie "Gypsy" comes to mind: "In this business, you either have it -- or you've had it."

The "it" is...charisma? Charm? Star Quality? In the best sense of the phrase, perhaps it's a "cult of personality" -- that ability of one individual to rally a group of people, all with their own opinions and personalities, and glue them together in a way that allows the achievement of seemingly impossible business goals.

Branson's name is usually mentioned in the same breath as another word: entrepreneur.

Huh? Prices are down?

Published by: Erika Miller, Correspondent — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 14:42:39 -0500

Official government data says consumer inflation has fallen .2% in the past year. I don't know about you, but it doesn't seem to me like prices are falling.

It came as a total surprise to me that grocery prices have fallen nearly 3 percent in the past year, one of the biggest category declines. I would have guessed prices at the supermarket were up.

But it turns out, prices for nearly every aisle have been coming down, including beef, milk, eggs and fruit. If you're curious about the exceptions, they're breakfast cereals, sugar and carbonated drinks.

Which brings us back to my question, why haven't shoppers noticed such widespread price declines?

Want to be a Landlord? Take it from Me: Just Say No!

Published by: Jeff Brown, Personal Finance Blogger — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 11:18:17 -0500

Tales from my 20 years as a landlord: One former tenant phoned months after disappearing into the night -- and leaving a horrific mess -- to berate me for letting the city junk the broken-down car he'd abandoned out front.

Another tenant called to have me referee a dispute with a plumber. I could hear his wife and the plumber screaming so viciously in the background that I thought about calling 911.

And, of course, I had tenants who fell behind in the rent, racked up huge, unnecessary repair bills, clogged the toilet with latex objects, set up meth labs in the basement and used the disposal to get rid of dead bodies.

Okay, those last two weren't real -- just the stuff of my nightmares. Every single night.

The Evolution of Goldman's Apology

Published by: Darren Gersh, Washington Bureau Chief — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 16:38:08 -0500

The Goldman Sachs apology has been evolving over time. Here is what Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein told me at the White House in March:

"There was no doubt there was bad behavior and over leverage on Wall Street, like there was over leverage in every aspect of the economy."

In June, here is what Blankfein said:

"We participated in the market euphoria and failed to raise a responsible voice.

This week:

We're a leader in our industry and we participated in things that are clearly wrong and we have reasons to um, regret and apologize for and we're subject to. And some of this is real and some of this is extrapolated, but all of it can't be good for a firm that has to...for a financial service firm that sells its reputation in part that we will take care of your needs and not draw attention to ourselves.

Why Weak Home Construction Hampers Recovery

Published by: Terri Cullen, Economy and Markets Blogger — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:52:25 -0500

Seems like every day there's new data out that suggest the U.S. economy is sputtering back to life, but one important driver of economic growth -- new home construction -- continues to hamper the recovery.

Housing starts tumbled 10.6% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 529,000 from a month earlier, the Commerce Department reported. The number startled economists, who'd forecast a 1.7% increase in new home groundbreakings. The disappointing October report followed September's 0.5% increase, which also came in well below economists expectations.

Why is new home construction so important to the economy? Historically, housing starts are among the first indicators to show strength in the early stages of an economic recovery. (Housing starts are the total number of new housing units -- single-family homes and multi-family apartment buildings -- that have begun to be built in any given period.)

Retirement Planning: Two Rules and Some Frightening Numbers

Published by: Jeff Brown, Personal Finance Blogger — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 12:03:15 -0500

Ever hear of the Rule of 72? How about the Rule of 300?

They are easy ways to get a rough idea of whether your investments will grow big enough for your retirement.

When I say "rough," I mean very rough. But there's no perfectly precise alternative, because all projections rely on guesswork about investment return, inflation and the number of years you'll be retired.

Obesity and Hunger in America

Published by: Darren Gersh, Washington Bureau Chief — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 17:47:55 -0500

It seems somehow fitting to write this as the President is visiting China. After all, I am old enough to have had my mother tell me: "Eat your food. People in China are starving."

Well, it appears that here at home we have too many people who eat far too much and too many people without enough to eat.

According to the Agriculture Department, 17 million U.S. families had trouble finding enough food over the course of the year. By the way, one-third of the country is also obese.

That's 72 million people who have too much to eat and 49 million who may not have enough to eat.

Beyond the humanitarian issues, why does this matter?

Fiscally Fit: The Art of the Cover Letter

Published by: The Intern — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 15:39:52 -0500

Authored by Stephanie May, NBR Summer 2009 Intern

In keeping with last week's theme of wondering where in the world I'll end up upon my graduation, I have decided to be an adult and be proactive about the situation. I am embarking on a very long and tedious journey. Ladies and Gentleman, I have begun the job hunt. So far, it's not bad! I'm actually really excited as I come up with plans A to Z for my future. But as I do this, I have realized I'm going to have to face one of my absolute biggest fears -- writing cover letters.

You would think writing cover letters would be a breeze for your Fiscally Fit blogger, but on the contrary, I find them almost impossible. The more I want the position, the more I struggle. What can you possibly say within the confines of an 8x11 piece of paper to make your potential employers realize how absolutely perfect you are for the job? The pressure is unbelievable!

Sales Reports Raise Hopes for Holiday Shopping

Published by: Terri Cullen, Economy and Markets Blogger — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 15:30:14 -0500

Apparently consumers are still willing to open their wallets, despite the fact so many are out of work. Retail sales in October rose 1.4%, outstripping the 0.9% increase economists had expected.

The retail-sales report reflects federal-government estimates of all receipts from retailers that sell durable goods (think cars, furniture, washer and dryers) and nondurable goods (your food, gasoline, party supplies, gardening materials). Today's U.S. Census Bureau report showed a surprising jump in auto sales last month, despite the expiration of the federal government's "Cash for Clunkers" stimulus program. Even more encouraging, if you exclude cars, retail sales were up 0.2% in October, rising for the third consecutive month.

Why do retails sales matter? Well, investors keep close tabs on retail sales because they have an immediate impact on stock prices. As I've noted in other blog posts, consumer spending makes up about 70% of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) -- the broadest measure of America's economy. Since consumer spending plays such a large role in GDP, retail-sales data help investors determine whether the economy is slowing down or picking up.